The past month has been challenging for Bitcoin, with the leading cryptocurrency experiencing a 10.25% slide – its worst performance since April. This decline was reflected across the crypto market, with ether dropping 23.66% in its third monthly drawdown and worst month since June 2022. Despite isolated success for Bitcoin due to ETFs in 2024, the overall sentiment in the market is bearish as other cryptocurrencies struggle to rally to all-time highs.
Bitcoin remains stuck in a descending trading range, with prices gradually deteriorating since its peak in March. Chart analysts are predicting a further decline, with a possible revisit to the bottom of the range in the low $50,000 region in the coming weeks. The trend of lower highs and lower lows since March indicates a bearish outlook for the near to mid-term direction of Bitcoin’s price.
Historically, September has been the worst month for Bitcoin, with the largest average loss of the year at 4.8%. The cryptocurrency has finished lower in eight of the last 11 Septembers, reflecting a challenging period for investors. Bitcoin has been range-bound between $50,000 and $70,000 since April and is likely to remain within this range for at least another month.
One of the factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent struggle was the supply overhang in the market. However, supply concerns have been largely resolved, with most remaining U.S. government Bitcoin supply recovered from theft and likely to be returned. This positive development, along with potential FTX cash distributions, could act as catalysts for the cryptocurrency market in the coming months.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election and uncertainty around U.S. interest rate cuts are major factors weighing on the market. Analysts predict that Bitcoin could remain range-bound until November, awaiting clarity on these key events. The outcome of the election, as well as the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations, could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price in the near future.
Bitcoin’s poor trading action in recent months reflects the overall uncertainty in the market. Traders are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor key events like the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. While the market awaits a sense of direction, Bitcoin’s price could remain under pressure in the coming weeks.