The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency and digital asset sector, according to Compass Point Research & Trading. Trump’s supportive stance on crypto, as evidenced by his campaign accepting crypto donations, has been well-received by industry players. Recent discussions with crypto miners about the benefits of the crypto industry for U.S. energy production, AI development, and data centers have further solidified his pro-crypto position.
The incorporation of Trump’s pro-crypto stance into the Republican National Committee’s 2024 Platform is a promising sign for the future of cryptocurrency regulation. The platform’s commitment to ending the crackdown on crypto, blocking the development of a CBDC, and supporting self-custody of crypto assets and BTC mining aligns well with Trump’s views. Moreover, the selection of Senator J.D. Vance as his Vice-President candidate, who has actively campaigned on a pro-crypto platform, indicates a strong crypto-friendly agenda under a potential Trump administration.
Under a Trump/Vance administration, the prospects of crypto legislation becoming law are expected to improve significantly. Vance’s draft legislation addressing crypto regulation by the SEC and CFTC, seen as more industry-friendly than existing legislation, could pave the way for broader crypto legislation. The collaboration between Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow and House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry on crypto regulation also signals bipartisan support for comprehensive crypto legislation.
Looking ahead to 2025, a Trump administration with a Republican-controlled Congress could have a two-year window to pass crypto legislation. The passage of existing legislation like FIT21 and Stabenow’s efforts to move a bill out of committee are positive indicators of a shifting legislative landscape that favors comprehensive crypto regulation. Compass analysts place the odds of comprehensive crypto legislation becoming law in the 119th Congress at better than 60%, pending the outcome of the November election.
A change in administration could also bring about a new SEC Chair, potentially like Hester Peirce, who is known for her support of crypto. This change in leadership at the SEC could lead to a more favorable environment for the crypto industry, potentially stemming enforcement actions and speeding up the resolution of outstanding cases, such as the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase.
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could herald a new era of crypto-friendly policies and legislation. With bipartisan support for comprehensive crypto regulation and key industry players in favor of a more favorable regulatory environment, the future of cryptocurrency under a potential Trump administration looks promising.